so what does it mean?

This past weekend is obviously just one weekend, but I keep getting hung up on this-

I lost 25 lbs over the winter.  I had a race I couldn't have imagined having 6 months ago on a dead flat course, I got annihilated on a hilly course. 

So many other factors contribute etc., but it's just odd.

Gets me thinking about training and what seems to work and what doesn't.  How even in a sport that isn't incredibly "mental" you can still get really hot or really cold for long periods of time.  The things you put in may or may not relate to what comes out.  Better capitalize when the stuff coming out is what you want!  Each of the last two years I went through portions of the spring where I was literally depressed and could hardly bring myself to do stuff around the house, let alone ride.  What was different this year?

Somewhat related are all the other things that go into being "fit"-  what you eat, what you drink, how you sleep, how much you ride leading into  your events.  I know what has worked for me in the past and what has not (sort of) but the reason of it is crazy!  On saturday I had a kwik trip breakfast croissant, a take 5 bar, a 6" turkey sub and about 80 oz of diet soda previous to my race...  bet that wouldn't be "right" for most of my readers.  I know when I first started racing I wouldn't have eaten that, just because I would have thought it was "wrong".

Where does it all verge into being superstitious?  I know that it doesn't really matter what kit I wear or which shoe I put on first etc., but are my habits with food, sleep, etc. just as silly?  Is it all mental?  Did I sprint well Saturday then just because I had confidence from Tuesday and the prime and I truly believed that I would?  I guess anyone can do anything they really believe they can do...

Do you feel like you get out what you put in with some sort of linearity?  Do you surprise yourself?